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If the Aggregates are based upon desire, which feeds delusion, then does this not mean that {improper?} "free-will" is the "Root Cause?"
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Primordial ignorance is the root cause, which is regrettably what we base our free-will on, our decisions. This disempowers us, since we misapprehend the way things are. All efforts to attain happiness are then lost, since they are based on a falsity.
When our actions are based on attachment, hatred and ignorance, we suffer. When on wisdom and compassion, we are happy. Simple cause and effect.
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I read the OP, and I read Vaj's response, which was pretty noncommital. So I have this question: Is reincarnation, in the pedestrian sense, a reality?
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Ultimately, no. Conventionally (pedestrianly), yes.
Disclaimer: Reincarnation is as real as any incarnation.
Ultimately, there are no sentient beings, no suffering, no Buddhism, no Buddhahood, no self, no aggregates, no life, no death, no desire, no ignorance, no subject-object dichotomy.
Yet all things manifest, and we continue to grasp onto birth, old age, sickness and death.
Your inquiry into the reality of reincarnation is premised on the difference between real and unreal. But when dealing with the Buddha's teaching, even that distinction is called into question.